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Bank of England expects economic downturn to be less severe than feared

THE Bank of England has forecast that unemployment will double to a rate of 7.5 per cent by the end of 2020 — leaving 2.5million people jobless.

But it said it expects the downturn in the UK economy to be less severe than first feared, while at the same time it could take longer to recover than previously predicted.

It also said that the UK economy shrank by more than 20 per cent in the first half of the year after being hammered by the coronavirus pandemic.

The bank improved its ‘indicative projection’ for growth in the economy, forecasting that GDP will shrink by 9.5 per cent this year, following government action aimed at protecting the economy.

In May, the central bank had warned that GDP could slump by 14 per cent this year.

However, it also warned that it does not expect the economy to jump back to pre-virus levels until ‘the end of 2021’.

It had previously said it thought GDP may recover to its pre-virus size by the second quarter of 2021.

The bank revealed its forecasts as it held interest rates at 0.1 per cent after its nine-strong Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously.

The central bank also said it will maintain its current quantitative easing programme at £745 billion.

The bank predicted that unemployment will jump, with the rate at 7.5 per cent at the end of 2020, before gradually declining from the start of next year.

This would represent ‘2.5million people out of work and searching for jobs’, the highest figure since 2013, the bank said.

The current level of people out of work and looking for a job is 1.35million, meaning more than one million jobs would be lost in the second half of this year.

Hopeful: Governor of the bank, Andrew Bailey PICTURE: GETTY

Governor of the bank, Andrew Bailey, told reporters today that the economy is ‘recovering’, but stressed that the progress has been ‘uneven’.

He also said that negative interest rates are in its ‘toolbox’, but he has no immediate plans to use the monetary policy measure for the first time.

He said: ‘This is the first time the Bank of England has said definitively, yes they’re in the toolbox.

‘The toolbox has a few things in it, even though obviously we are inevitably, like other central banks, in a more constrained world given where rates are.’

A consensus of analysts had said they expected rates to be held, while quantitative easing plans were also expected to remain unchanged.

Rates have already been slashed twice, from 0.75 per cent, since mid-March as part of the Bank’s measures to try and keep the economy afloat.

The value of the pound picked up against the dollar after traders welcomed the decision to hold rates.

Fiona Cincotta, analyst at Gain Capital, said: ‘The Bank of England was considerably more upbeat about the recovery than had been expected.

‘Upwardly revised growth forecasts, a more rapid recovery than initially feared and no tilting towards negative rates at this time has sent sterling surging towards 1.32 US dollars.’